Recession Odds Rise to Highest in 40 Years: Fed US News | The Epoch Times https://ift.tt/cnwm09e The odds that the United States will fall into a recession at some point over the next 12 months have risen to a 40-year high, according to a probability model from the New York Federal Reserve. The probability that the country will enter a recession within the next year has risen to 68.2 percent, according to the New York Fed, which is the highest level since 1982. The Fed’s recession risk indicator is now greater than it was in November 2007, not long before the subprime crisis, when it stood at 40 percent. The recession model is based on the spread between the three-month and 10-year yields on U.S. Treasurys.... May 13, 2023 at 08:06AM https://ift.tt/giLNmkA Tom Ozimek https://ift.tt/0W46J7r
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